Ulster Business

The business world has for years attracted the attention of the film industry and it’s no surprise Michael Douglas is soon to again extol the virtues of greed in his return as Gordon Gekko in the sequel to the 80s film Wall Street.

With this in mind, and in conjunction with the Oscar awards ceremony, Ulster Bank’s Chief Economist Richard Ramsey offers up a few worthy winners picked from the global credit crunch and recession.

There are not many in the economic world who have covered themselves in glory during recent times. However, in economic terms, the past couple of years have no doubt been blockbusters with regard to their significance and impact (though of course not popularity). Therefore, with the world of film and cinematography celebrating the 82nd Annual Academy Awards in March, we’ve decided to suggest some potential winners of a hypothetical Economic Oscars.

The Credit Crunch 2007/8 and The Great Recession of 2009 would be shoo-ins to dominate proceedings for their respective years. But what are the economies, sectors, personalities and organisations in contention for the various categories?

Best Economy
At the start of the last decade, while martial arts film Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon was winning four gongs at the Oscars, the Celtic Tiger was being feted by the economic critics for its continuing strong growth, and China’s economy was the ‘hidden dragon’, not yet hitting the high notes we’ve seen in recent years. In 2009 however, these roles, in some respects, were reversed, with the Irish economy having fallen from grace and the Chinese economy the star of the show. China would therefore be a sure-fire winner of this category, ahead of a nomination list dominated by other Asian economies such as India.

Best Economic Actor
For this category, it would be hard to disagree with TIME magazine, who nominated Ben Bernanke as Person of the Year. In his capacity as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Bernanke did more than most to prevent a collapse in the global financial system. So significant was his role that a Best Economic Director accolade would also be a strong possibility.

With regard to 2008, the rapid intervention and equity injections into British banks would have earned Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling the awards of Best Economic Actor and Best Supporting Economic Actor respectively in that year. Their ‘original screenplay’, which was adapted by others around the world, would also be a strong contender in its category.

Best Sector
In Northern Ireland, whilst no one individual or organisation has really stood out in the recession, we would at least have one strong contender for the Best Sector gong. Whilst other local sectors such as construction and services have suffered badly in 2009, the local food and drink sector’s performance has continued to be outstanding, with ‘box office receipts’ from international markets boosted by a favourable exchange rate.

Best Supporting Economic Actor
In terms of organisations, the central banks would be the nominees in this category, with the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England the main contenders. Their role in helping avert an economic catastrophe – in particular they have had to clear up the mess caused by a lack of effective regulation – deserves recognition. It is disappointing that the regulators had only cameo roles in recent years as opposed to the lead parts that they deserve.

Best Makeup
Greek themed films have featured in the Academy Awards over the years: Zorba the Greek picked up three Oscars in 1964 and My Big Fat Greek Wedding was nominated in 2002. In the economic world, Greece concealed the scale of its annual fiscal deficit for most of last year before October’s staggering Government announcement that its projected deficit for 2009 was double the previous estimate. For this reason, My Big Fat Greek Deficit secures the lesser known award of Best Makeup for 2009. This follows Bernie Madoff’s success in recent years where he was able to pull off the largest investor fraud by an individual in history. Mr Madoff clearly had an ability for Special Effects.

Best Quote
One of the best quotes of 2009 was made by the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Charles Bean, who invoked another Academy Award winning film – Murder on the Orient Express (1974). The Deputy Governor posed the question what would be the legacy of what he described as the Great Panic and the Great Contraction. “It would be a mistake to look for a single guilty culprit…..As in Agatha Christie’s Murder on the Orient Express, everyone had a hand in it”. In a similar vein, getting out of the current economic malaise requires a concerted effort by all parties.