Posted on Monday 21 January 2019 by John Mulgrew


Northern Ireland’s economy could suffer a £5bn drop in output by 2034 in the event of a ‘no deal’ Brexit, it’s been claimed.

According to the CBI, its analysis of government figures published at the end of last year shows if the UK fails to secure a deal with the EU, by 2034, GVA could be “9.1% lower than under the UK’s current arrangements with the EU according to government analysis”.

The CBI calculates this could amount to an annual loss of output worth almost £5bn by 2034, based on today’s prices.

It says “manufacturing activity is particularly important in Northern Ireland, and the agri-food sector, which employs thousands, is likely to be severely impacted as it is particularly exposed to the risk of higher tariffs and trade costs”.

Angela McGowan, Northern Ireland director of the CBI, said:

“CBI members across Northern Ireland are clear: if the new approach to finding a Brexit deal continues to be a game of who blinks first, the Northern Irish economy will pay the price.

“The deadlock will only be broken by a genuine attempt by all MPs to find consensus and compromise, not stick to rusting red lines and political conditions. Like the rest of the UK, Northern Ireland is not – and cannot be – ready for no deal.

“The projected impact on our economy would be devastating and while business will do all it can to reduce some of the worst aspects, a no deal scenario is unmanageable.

“The message from the CBI to our politicians is clear – we must see compromise or the whole country faces the unforgivable prospect of a disorderly Brexit which will affect jobs and livelihoods in Northern Ireland for decades to come. It’s time to put prosperity before party politics and dogma.”




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