Posted on Wednesday 10 July 2019 by John Mulgrew

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Northern Ireland faces losing 40,000 jobs in a ‘no deal’ Brexit which could have ‘immediate and severe consequences' for its position as an all-island and UK economy, a government paper has warned.

The paper, which examines the negative impact of a ‘no deal’ EU exit, warns the “Northern Ireland Civil Service’s assessment remains that a ‘no deal’ would have a profound and long-lasting impact on NI’s economy and society”.

Among its key points, it says a ‘no deal’ “could lead to a sharp increase in unemployment, with at least 40,000 jobs at risk, based on EU export exposure”.

“The impact of EU tariffs could reduce NI’s exports to Ireland by 11% and the inclusion of non-tariff barriers could see a decline of 19%,” it says.

Once again, it raises serious concerns over the agri-sector in particular, meat in particular, and beef especially, in regards to “increased vulnerability to low cost non-EU imports in the GB or NI market”.

It's not just the physical goods, though as it says Northern Ireland's IT sector is facing the cost of exporting services increasing, by an average of 14.5%.

And regarding foreign direct investment (FDI) – one of the big business buzzwords here over the last few years – it says “under a ‘no deal’ exit, NI’s FDI attractiveness would be negatively impacted”.

“A ‘no deal’ would see losses in the medium to long run of 6% per annum in the case of the number of FDI projects and of 7.6% for FDI-related new jobs.”


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